Tetlock, Philip
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
- ISBN 13:
- 9781847947154
- author:
- Tetlock, Philip
- format:
- Paperback
- publisher:
- Random House Books
- language:
- English
- Publication Year:
- 2016
- Pages:
- 352
- Dimensions:
- 12.9 x 2.2 x 19.8 cm
- Genre:
- Health, Family & Lifestyle, Psychology & Psychiatry, Social & Developmental Psychology,
- Condition:
- New
- Availability:
- Item usually sent within 7 working days
Description
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. However, we're not very good at it. A landmark study by Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project has since identified a group of ordinary people with an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average.
These superforecasters have been studied and their methods revealed. Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show how these superforecasters outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. The book provides practical advice on how to use these methods for our own benefit, whether in business, international affairs, or everyday life.
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