Chivers, Tom
Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World
- ISBN 13:
- 9781399604031
- author:
- Chivers, Tom
- format:
- Hardback
- publisher:
- Weidenfeld & Nicolson
- language:
- English
- Publication Year:
- 2024
- Pages:
- 336
- Dimensions:
- 24.1 x 16.3 x 3.1 centimetres (0
- Genre:
- Biography
- Condition:
- New
- Availability:
- Item usually sent within 5 working days
Description
Thomas Bayes was an eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician whose obscure life belied the profound impact of his work. His theorem, known as Bayes' theorem, has far-reaching implications that extend beyond its original purpose in games of chance. Bayes' theorem helps explain why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives, causing unnecessary anxiety for patients. Its influence can also be seen in the use of Bayesian principles in modelling and forecasting, and in the work of "superforecasters" who outperform CIA analysts. This book provides a captivating tour of Bayes' theorem and its impact on modern life, from medical testing to artificial intelligence. Fusing biography, razor-sharp science communication and intellectual history, Tom Chivers shows how a single compelling idea can have far-reaching consequences.
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