Fingar, Thomas
Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security
- ISBN 13:
- 9780804775946
- author:
- Fingar, Thomas
- format:
- Paperback
- publisher:
- Stanford University Press
- language:
- English
- Publication Year:
- 2011
- Pages:
- 192
- Dimensions:
- 15.2 x 1.8 x 22.9 cm
- Genre:
- Society, Politics & Philosophy, Government & Politics, Political Structure & Processes
- Condition:
- New
- Availability:
- Item usually sent within 10 working days
Description
The US government invests billions of dollars annually in reducing uncertainty, monitoring and forecasting various aspects of life, from weather to disease outbreaks. A significant portion of this expenditure goes towards the US Intelligence Community, which employs analysts to anticipate problems, identify opportunities, and avoid mistakes. Intelligence Community analysts focus on threats rather than opportunities, and their output is often used to warn about potential "bad things" happening, rather than providing input for positive outcomes. This book aims to increase public understanding of what these analysts do, stimulate innovation, and provide a core resource for students of intelligence. The book delves into National Intelligence Estimates, explaining what they are, their significance, and why they have high political salience. It also examines the flawed Iraq WMD National Intelligence Estimate and its impact on the subsequent Iran nuclear National Intelligence Estimate, highlighting the heightened political scrutiny the latter received following the former.
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