Tetlock, Philip E.
Expert Political Judgment
- ISBN 13:
- 9780691175973
- author:
- Tetlock, Philip E.
- format:
- Paperback
- publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- language:
- English
- Publication Year:
- 2017
- Pages:
- 368
- Dimensions:
- 32.26 x 24.89 x 22.1 centimetres
- Genre:
- 32.26 x 24.89 x 22.1 centimetres, Nonfiction, Psychology, Social Psychology,
- Condition:
- New
- Availability:
- Item usually sent within 10 working days
Description
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Philip Tetlock's seminal work explores the nature of expert judgment and its limitations in predicting future events. By examining the performance of experts across various fields, Tetlock identifies the key factors that distinguish successful from unsuccessful forecasting. The book reveals a paradoxical relationship between the qualities prized by pundits and those that indicate good judgment. Tetlock also introduces Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, which shed light on the styles of thinking that are most effective in predicting the future. With its clear writing and rigorous research, this revised edition provides valuable insights into what constitutes good judgment and why experts often fail to forecast accurately.
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